By Dionis Cenuşa° – initially published on IPN
° Dionis Cenuşa is a political scientist from Moldova who works as Program Director on Energy Security at the Independent Economic Think-tank “Expert-Group”, based in Chisinau.
Even if the anti-oligarchic forces or civil society in Chisinau use the visa waiver suspension mechanism to emphasize the authorities’ involvement in money laundering schemes or grand corruption, the European citizens’ and their governments’ attention is caught by the images of illegal migration and/or criminality…
Five years ago, the European Union introduced Moldova into the
list of countries that benefit from the visa-free regime that for now
produced more positive than negative effects. In 2014-2019, more than 2
million Moldovans crossed the borders of the EU about 6.2 million times.
(MFA.GOV.md, April 26, 2019).
The visa liberalization allowed reducing travel costs and optimizing
travel time. More exactly, the Moldovans could save about €70 million,
which would have been spent on Schengen visas issued under the facilitated visa regime (€35 per person) that was place between 2007-2014.
The legal stay of Moldovans was extended to cover all the holders of
biometric passports (90 days during six months). The unintended
consequences of the visa liberalization included yet the encouragement
of a series of negative practices, such as the non-observance of the
period of stay, unjustified applications for asylum or integration of
crime into the circuit of facilitated travel to the EU. The increasing
proportions of these irregularities started to bother the EU. Besides
the actions of Moldovans in the EU, the (in)action of the authorities
inside Moldova represents another part of the European preoccupations.
That’s why the defects in fighting corruption, undermining of the fiscal
legislation or failed investigation of the banking fraud became as or
even more pressing for the visa-free regime, alongside citizens’ abuses.
In 2014, the European side rewarded the Moldovan authorities’
efforts for carrying out a series of reforms designed to update the
legislation on migration or human rights, to strengthen the
anti-corruption fight or to improve the management of state borders. The
objective of that move was to use Moldova as a “source of inspiration”
for the Eastern Partnership region, which showed that the national
authorities can be credible partners of reforms and, simultaneously, of
the European integration. In 2019, the weight of the Moldovan example
decreased to zero both following multiple government failures and
because the visa-free regime was also extended to Georgia (March 2017)
and Ukraine (June 2017). The disappearance of Moldovan exclusiveness
resulted in the strengthening of the EU’s straightforwardness, on the
one hand, and the weakening of the Moldovan potential to negotiate
concessions, on the other hand. Moreover, Moldova can no way shirk from
the European approaches as it takes part in an informal competition for
the EU’s attention with Ukraine and Georgia. At the same time, the risks
generated in parallel by Georgia or Ukraine to the European public
security can diminish the importance of the backsliding caused
voluntarily by the Moldovan authorities on political grounds.
The 2015 migration crisis made the European governments’
critical attitude to the applicability of the visa-free regime to third
countries sharper. The negotiations of the European sides on the
strengthening of the Schengen Area resulted in the simplification of the
process of suspending the visa-free regime. The reform itself shows the
insistence of the protectionist calls and complements the instruments
that target corruption and crime in the Eastern neighborhood of the EU (IPN, January 15, 2018).
The availability of the visa waiver suspension mechanism is already
being tested by the Dutch Parliament, which in April 2019 called on the
country’s government to demand from EU to reintroduce the visa regime for Albania.
Even if Albania faces different problems related to the non-observance
of the provisions of the visa-free regime, the motive indicated by the
Dutch side is the abundance of cross-border organized crime with the
involvement of the Albanian citizens. The growth of the political weight
of the populist-nationalist forces in Europe, including together with
the upcoming European Parliament elections (May 25-26), can lead to the
multiplication of the requests to reintroduce Schengen visas for Western
Balkans and the associated Eastern Partnership countries – Moldova,
Ukraine and Georgia. For these reasons, both national authorities’
gestures and citizens’ behavior can equally have a decisive role in
keeping the visa-free regime intact.
Technical parameters versus political parameters
Under the new provisions on visa suspension, approved in November 2018,
Brussels is obliged to monitor the evolution of the political and also
technical parameters during up to seven years of the abolition of visas.
Later, the situation can be assessed when need be or at the suggestion
of the Council of the EU or the European Parliament. This way, the EU
will monitor Moldova at least until 2021, when seven years since the
visa liberalization should be celebrated.
Until now, the Commission launched two assessment reports that
point to the critical areas in the eight countries that benefit from a
visa-free regime (five in Western Balkans and three in EaP), including
for Moldova. Both of the reports (December 2017 and December 2018)
show negative tendencies for Moldova as regards the political criteria
related to the implementation of corruption and crime fighting measures
and the correct management of migration.
The prioritization of the European concerns about the
fulfilment by Moldova of the conditions of the visa-free regime can be
deduced from their order in each of the documents. So, the assessment of
2017 revealed the preoccupations with the insufficient efforts made to
fight money laundering, to strengthen the anti-corruption and integrity
institutions. On the list of recommendations formulated by the EU in
2017, the irregularities concerning Moldovans’ migration took a minor
place (only one recommendation of the six, written last).
The situation changed considerably in 2018, when the technical
parameters related to the refusals of entry into the EU, applications
for asylum or illegal stays surpassed other problems (three recommendations of six, written at the top). This is confirmed by statistics (See Table 1).
The remodeling of the situation balanced the criticism of the
anti-corruption parameters that, despite formal improvements (laws,
procedures), are late in producing measurable results in the fight
against political corruption, stopping of the money laundering schemes
or recovery of the funds stolen from the banking system.
Table 1. Main indicators in assessment of visa-free regime’s conditions fulfillment with the EU
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| Refusals of entry to the Schengen Area | ||||
| Moldova | 1.845 | 2.725 | 4.660 | 7.270 |
| Ukraine | 15.585 | 23.795 | 22.495 | 33.105 |
| Georgia | 3.185 | 1.330 | 810 | 2.655 |
| Illegal stays | ||||
| Moldova | 2.245 | 4.050 | 7.660 | 8.785 |
| Ukraine | 16.520 | 23.480 | 29.565 | 33.485 |
| Georgia | 6.550 | 5.405 | 5.240 | 5.860 |
| Readmitted/returned (%) | ||||
| Moldova | 62.3% of 1.700 | 67.3% of 1.810 | 48.1% of 5.035 | 83% of 4.600 |
| Ukraine | 74.7% of 12.220 | 76.4% of 19.200 | 82.5% of 26.865 | 79% of 32.135 |
| Georgia | 53.9% of 6.260 | 45.1% of 6.415 | 55.9% of 5.635 | 63% of 7.275 |
| Applications for asylum | ||||
| Moldova | 475 | 1.850 | 3.675 | 1.610 |
| Ukraine | 14.090 | 22.100 | 12.460 | 10.075 |
| Georgia | 8.570 | 8.110 | 8.700 | 11.755 |
Source: Data merged by author based on two monitoring reports of the EU
Unlike the political problems, like the fight against
corruption, the individual abuses of Moldavans are more visible to the
Europeans and can encourage objections in favor of visa liberalization
suspension at any moment (suspension for nine months, later for another 18 months and, finally, definitive introduction of visas for all citizens).
Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Hungary are among the European
countries that have been most often affected by the irregularities
committed by Moldovans (applications for asylum, illegal stays). The
example of Albania shows that the Netherlands is increasingly sensitive
to the abuses committed against the visa-free regime, as well as Germany
should not be neglected. For these reasons, the political and sectoral
contacts in such areas as public security, migration and human rights
with the Netherlands and Germany necessitate a higher attention from
Chisinau.
Currently, the Moldovan authorities try to demonstrate
efficient cooperation in the return of Moldovans who violated the regime
of stay (Unimedia, April 19, 2019).
However, the data for 2018 show that only 80% of the Moldovans who
leave for the EU based on the visa-free regime return home (IPN, May 2, 2018).
The poor results achieved as regards the applications for asylum are
signaled as a major problem by the EU even if these applications
decreased in number over two times in 2018 (1.610) on 2017 (3.675). By
now the authorities announced no clear measure that would enable to
systemically solve the problem of asylum seekers, such as determining
their common profile or dismantling the networks of facilitators.
Also, at political level, the Moldovan side didn’t renounce
the politics contested by the foreign partners, internal opposition or
most of the civil society. Both the capital amnesty and the provision of
Moldovan citizenship in return for investments, without publishing the
names of beneficiaries, are supported by 74% of the Parliament
representation, elected on February 24 2019 (PSRM, PDM, Shor Party and
the independents – 75 seats). The forecast risks haven’t yet
materialized. The authorities granted one citizenship for investments
since the launch of the program in November 2018 (ZDG, April 5, 2019)
and collected 30 million Moldovan MDL (about €1.5m) from ten persons
based on the capital amnesty initiative launched in the summer of 2018
(Free Europe, April 26). Only the former extra-parliamentary opposition
that is now represented in Parliament (Bloc ACUM – 26 seats) seeks the
suspension of these policies as part of an anti-oligarchic package (ACUM.md).
There is a persisting perception that the EU uses the reporting under
the visa waiver suspension mechanism to channel its criticism in favor
of good governance in Moldova (IPN, November 19, 2018).
Georgia more concerned than Moldova, Ukraine calmer
Against the dimensions of the population, the statistical data
show the most negative tendencies for Georgia, with the applications
for asylum and high indices of integration of Georgian citizens into
criminal activities in Europe prevailing. Ukraine can be examined as the
second difficult case, mainly owing to the military operations in
Donbass, generated by the separatist forces supported by Russia. This
explains the high number of applications for asylum submitted by
Ukrainians (about 10,000 annually) or the smuggling of munitions
coming from military activities in Donbass. Even if the technical
indicators seem to favor Moldova, the country achieved poor results in
fighting corruption, similar to the data for Ukraine.
At the start of last year, the Georgian authorities took a
number of steps to soothe the concerns of the European side, in
particular of Germany. As regards the fight of illegal migration,
the legislation on the issuing of identification papers was updated to
limit the right to modify the family names from over 25 reasons (Agenda.ge, April 19, 2018)
to only two grounds – marriage and divorce. This step helps identify
the Georgians who stay illegally in the Schengen Area. Furthermore,
there were introduced some draconic measures, including jailing for at most four years for those who provide support to Georgians who stay illegally in Europe or when preparing applications for asylum. To discourage the interest when seeking asylum, the Georgian side suggested to Germany (Agenda.ge, March 6, 2018)
and other European states to include Georgia in the list of safe
countries. That prevents the provision of the status of asylum to the
Georgians and hastens the procedures for examining applications,
readmission and, respectively, return of persons. Twelve Schengen states
already followed Georgia’s appeal and annulled Georgians’ chances of
receiving asylum (Agenda.ge, April 1, 2019),
including Germany, which referred to Georgia and other counties that
are important sources of asylum seekers, such as Tunis, Morocco and
Algeria (Agenda.ge, January 19, 2019). As regards the fighting against crime of Georgian origin that purportedly increased its influence on the criminal market in Europe (European Commission, December 19, 2018),
Georgia managed to counteract various criminal groups, including in
partnership with EU states. But the number of these criminal groups is
probably so high that the efforts should be doubled. In April 2019, over
25 Georgians accused of crime were caught in Spain, while the
authorities in Germany, Iceland and Sweden report a high number of
crimes that involve Georgian citizens and asylum seekers (Civil.ge, April 2019).
Apparently, the multiple measures adopted by the Georgian government
have yet an insufficient impact to provide solid guarantees to the
European side. It’s definite that particular risks threaten the
visa-free regime and this was emphasized by the visit paid by
representatives of the European Commission (Directorate-General for
Justice and Home Affairs) to Tbilisi to discuss the difficulties related
to the fulfilment of the conditions of the visa-free regime by the
Georgian side (Agenda.ge, April 24, 2019).
The emergence of European preoccupations related to public
order and security, on the one hand, shows the incapacity of the
authorities in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia to effectively fight
domestic crime. On the other hand, the same thing shows the criminals’
ability to exteriorize without difficulty their activity in Europe,
through the visa-free regime. The largest number of alerts issued by the
national authorities through the Schengen Information System refer to
Georgia, including against the size of the population. This way, over
250 requests for arrest or extradition concerned Georgian citizens, a
similar number involved the Ukrainian citizens, and under 150 alerts
were linked to the Moldovan citizens (See Table 2).
Table 2. EU alerts through second-generation Schengen Information System
| Number of alerts issued by the EU under Schengen Information System (SIS 2) | ||
| 2017 | 2018 (6 months) | |
| Moldova | 77 | 64 |
| Ukraine | 158 | 101 |
| Georgia | 146 | 108 |
Instead of conclusions…
Georgia’s nervousness around the European concerns contrasts with the calm attitude of Moldova and Ukraine, which prefer to solve the departures related to the visa-free regime with minimum publicity or, if not, they perceive at reduced intensity the alert signals transmitted by the EU.
Besides reanimating the visa-free regime, the intensification of cooperation with the European institutions helps the Georgian government that is under the influence of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili to gain credibility. In the case of Ukraine, such major objectives as strengthening of statehood, security and functionality of the state prevail. The latters also overlap as regards the liberalization of visas, primarily when the fight against corruption is supported.
The Moldovan authorities focus on the post-electoral re-positioning of the party led by Vladimir Plahotniuc, which prevails over the European objections concerning governance and corruption. Even if the anti-oligarchic forces or civil society in Chisinau use the visa waiver suspension mechanism to emphasize the authorities’ involvement in money laundering schemes or grand corruption, the European citizens and their governments’ attention is caught by the images of illegal migration and/or criminality.
